Forecasting Automobile Demand Via Artificial Neural Networks & Neuro-Fuzzy Systems

The objective of this research is to obtain an accurate forecasting model for the demand for automobiles in Iran\u27s domestic market. The model is constructed using production data for vehicles manufactured from 2006 to 2016, by Iranian car makers. The increasing demand for transportation and automobiles in Iran necessitated an accurate forecasting model for car manufacturing companies in Iran so that future demand is met. Demand is deduced as a function of the historical data. The monthly gold, rubber, and iron ore prices along with the monthly commodity metals price index and the Stock index of Iran are Artificial neural network (ANN) and artificial neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) have been utilized in many fields such as energy consumption and load forecasting fields. The performances of the methodologies are investigated towards obtaining the most accurate forecasting model in terms of the forecast Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was concluded that the feedforward multi-layer perceptron network with back-propagation and the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm provides forecasts with the lowest MAPE (5.85%) among the other models. Further development of the ANN network based on more data is recommended to enhance the model and obtain more accurate networks and subsequently improved forecasts

Modeling and forecasting US presidential election using learning algorithms

Abstract The primary objective of this research is to obtain an accurate forecasting model for the US presidential election. To identify a reliable model, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) models are compared based on some specified performance measures. Moreover, six independent variables such as GDP, unemployment rate, the president’s approval rate, and others are considered in a stepwise regression to identify significant variables. The president’s approval rate is identified as the most significant variable, based on which eight other variables are identified and considered in the model development. Preprocessing methods are applied to prepare the data for the learning algorithms. The proposed procedure significantly increases the accuracy of the model by 50%. The learning algorithms (ANN and SVR) proved to be superior to linear regression based on each method’s calculated performance measures. The SVR model is identified as the most accurate model among the other models as this model successfully predicted the outcome of the election in the last three elections (2004, 2008, and 2012). The proposed approach significantly increases the accuracy of the forecast

Solving a continuous periodic review inventory-location allocation problem in vendor-buyer supply chain under uncertainty

In this work, a mixed-integer binary non-linear two-echelon inventory problem is formulated for a vendor-buyer supply chain network in which lead times are constant and the demands of buyers follow a normal distribution. In this formulation, the problem is a combination of an (r, Q) and periodic review policies based on which an order of size Q is placed by a buyer in each fixed period once his/her on hand inventory reaches the reorder point r in that period. The constraints are the vendors’ warehouse spaces, production restrictions, and total budget. The aim is to find the optimal order quantities of the buyers placed for each vendor in each period alongside the optimal placement of the vendors among the buyers such that the total supply chain cost is minimized. Due to the complexity of the problem, a Modified Genetic Algorithm (MGA) and a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to find optimal and near-optimum solutions. In order to assess the quality of the solutions obtained by the algorithms, a mixed integer nonlinear program (MINLP) of the problem is coded in GAMS. A design of experiment approach named Taguchi is utilized to adjust the parameters of the algorithms. Finally, a wide range of numerical illustrations is generated and solved to evaluate the performances of the algorithms. The results show that the MGA outperforms the PSO in terms of the fitness function in most of the problems and also is faster than the PSO in terms of CPU time in all the numerical examples.peerReviewe